One of the most critical structural challenges facing the Islamic Republic is the issue of who will succeed its 86-year-old leader.
Iran’s Political Structure May Help to Explain Its Succession Dilemma
The current political structure resembles a garment tailored exclusively for Iran’s supreme leader; without him, the entire system stands on the brink of collapse.
Reports indicate that Ali Khamenei intends to designate his son, Mojtaba, as deputy and successor through a pre-planned scenario.
This serves two main purposes: first, to prevent nuclear and regional concessions from being attributed directly to Khamenei himself; second, to avoid a major crisis in the event of the leader’s sudden death without an appointed successor, leading to a nationwide uprising.
Lack of Trust in the Hard Security Core
In the recent confrontation between Iran and Israel, Iran’s defense and nuclear infrastructure sustained severe blows through infiltration.
Several senior military and intelligence commanders were killed, creating a wave of distrust at the highest levels of power and significantly eroding the authority of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Since 2018, Khamenei had initiated a process of “purification” to turn the hard security core into the country’s dominant force.
Yet the recent attacks revealed that this very core is itself exposed to infiltration, putting at risk even the leader’s security.
The Supreme Defense Council: A Move Toward Security Unification
Because the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic derives not from popular vote but from reliance on security and repressive institutions, the recent vulnerabilities were perceived as a vital threat. In response, a Supreme Defense Council was established to address this weakness.
The multiplicity of parallel intelligence structures — such as the IRGC Intelligence Organization, the Ministry of Intelligence, and the Leader’s Office — has caused confusion and inefficiency in security decision-making.
The formation of the new council is supposed to consolidate intelligence and enhance institutional coordination.
The Return of Ali Larijani
The appointment of Ali Larijani — a moderate figure trusted by segments of the ruling elite — as the new secretary of the important Supreme National Security Council is driven by several factors.
This can help balance rival factions. Moreover, Larijani is regarded as a personality capable of narrowing the gap between the Ministry of Intelligence, the IRGC Intelligence, and the leader’s office.
The Deadlock of ‘Neither War Nor Peace’
After the suspension of nuclear negotiations during the first Trump era and the imposition of more severe sanctions, Iran came under unprecedented pressure.
Now, with the “Snapback” mechanism for the automatic return of sanctions on the verge of being implemented, the country’s economy and domestic politics are destabilized.
The impoverished society is on the brink of chaos; five nationwide revolts have already taken place, and any future uprising might happen to be the decisive one.
The regime is compelled to choose between war or retreat, since the continuation of the “neither war nor peace” situation could push the country toward a new conflict.
For this reason, Khamenei swiftly agreed to the recent ceasefire.
Khamenei’s Main Strategy: External Negotiation, Internal Repression
Khamenei’s primary goal is to preserve the structure of velayat (supreme leader’s dictatorship). The 12-day war showed that the regime’s vulnerability is far greater than he had previously imagined. Accordingly, he is pursuing two parallel tracks:
- Containing external tensions through limited negotiations and step-by-step concessions aimed at easing pressure and sanctions, hoping to prevent further military strikes.
- Demonstrating internal authority through harsher repression; mainly the increase in executions and strengthening security control.
In the past, Khamenei maintained relative balance among factions during external pressure to prevent internal rifts from triggering social unrest.
But now each faction is pursuing its own independent path — an unmistakable sign of the leader’s diminishing capacity to unify the political discourse.
Signs of Weakening Power and the End of Unanimity
- Open attacks by hardliners on President Masoud Pezeshkian, despite his repeated insistence that every decision is coordinated with the Supreme Leader,
- Efforts by certain figures, including former president Hassan Rohani, to push for social preventive measures up to even demanding the release of political prisoners as a way of pressuring Khamenei In the past, factions typically waited for clear signals from the leader before taking action; today, each pursues its own independent course.
Reshuffling players and introducing new entities in haste stand as clear evidence of the leader’s weakened position after the recent clashes with Israel and the United States.
From the Weakening of the IRGC to the Prospect of Nationwide Uprising
Structural changes also demonstrate the erosion of the authority of the IRGC and its intelligence apparatus, and the regime itself.
This is the weakening of a system that had long relied primarily on the IRGC’s military and security power. As a result, the prospect of a nationwide uprising, sparked by organized resistance units has become increasingly serious — no longer a distant threat.
Hamid Enayat is based in Paris and is a noted expert on Iran. He has written extensively on issues pertinent to Iran and the Mideast region. Read Dr. Hamid Enyat’s Reports — More Here.
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