New York City voters are starting to splinter in their support for democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani, according to a new AARP poll that revealed the Democrat nominee is still the front-runner in the Big Apple’s mayoral race.
Nearly half of the survey’s respondents, or 47%, expressed an unfavorable view of Mamdani, while an identical share said they had a favorable opinion of the Queens assemblyman.
Likely voters had a more positive perspective of Mamdani in recent previous polls, with his unfavorability rating in those surveys at 30% to the low-40% range.
Regardless, in the new AARP survey, Mamdani garnered nearly 42% support, followed by former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo with just over 23%. Guardian Angels founder and GOP nominee Curtis Sliwa secured almost 17% and New York City Mayor Eric Adams received around 9%.
In June, Mamdani pulled off a stunning primary upset and dashed Cuomo’s aspirations of securing his political comeback as the Democrat mayoral nominee.
Now running as an independent candidate, Cuomo has since failed to chip away at Mamdani’s substantial advantage heading into the November general election.
Adams did not run in the Democratic primary and is instead running for reelection as an independent. In recent polling, he has struggled to reach double-digit support among New York voters.
Mamdani’s status as the obvious front-runner could be undermined by a crisis of confidence, however, from his own side of the aisle.
The Democratic Party has yet to coalesce around him, as establishment figures look to distance themselves from Mamdani’s big government proposals.
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul has thus far declined to weigh in on the race or endorse her party’s mayoral nominee, going so far as to attack Mamdani’s plan to raise taxes for the wealthy and businesses.
The governor, who is running for reelection next year, also panned Mamdani’s city-run grocery store plan over the weekend, saying she is in favor of “free enterprise” rather than government interference in capitalism.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., have also stopped short of endorsing the progressive lawmaker.
The poll also explored a set of drop out scenarios, which asked voters who they would be most likely to support if their top candidate suspended their campaign.
In each scenario, Mamdani retains a “commanding lead” over the field’s remaining contenders, pulling at least 42% support in each hypothetical matchup.
“Mamdani sits on a hard floor around forty percent but likely to have a firm ceiling below a majority – in a split field that’s enough to stay ahead,” Stephen Graves, president of Gotham Polling & Analytics, said in a statement.
“Cuomo has the best path of the challengers, but even in a hypothetical one-on-one in an election that often favors lower-turnout, older electorates, he still trails by double digits,” Graves said.
“A disciplined persuasion campaign could still make this a race,” he added.
The poll was conducted Aug. 11 and surveyed 1,376 likely New York City voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
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