It isn’t often that mid-term elections for a country’s legislature draw international attention but that is precisely the case in Argentina Sunday — when voters decided roughly half the seats in the Chamber of Deputies (127 out of 257) and one-third of the Senate seats (24 out of 72).
With the Argentine economy suddenly buffeted, its peso falling and its currency reserves low, President Javier Milei — the first-ever libertarian to be elected chief of state anywhere — is on the political ropes just two years after his election cheered advocates of small government and greater freedom worldwide.
But while many see a defeat for Milei at a time of such economic turmoil, others in Argentina who spoke to Newsmax believe the feisty president and his La Libertad Avanza (Liberty Advances Party) can pull off a win that will have an impact on both the U.S. and China.
“In the provincial elections in Buenos Aires last month, the [opposition] Peronists did win by a commanding margin [47 to 34 percent],” Harry Ingham, former board member and columnist for the Buenos Aires Herald, told us, “But that was in a Peronist stronghold and with a turnout of only 52 percent. But tomorrow, you can expect a minimum of 70 percent turning out, and if the anti-Peronists who don’t like Milei’s flamboyant style can just bury the hatchet and support him, they have a good chance of burying Peronism.”
“My sources in Argentina say Karina wins and Kicillof loses,” said Dardo Lopez-Dolz, senior fellow of the Center for a Secure Free Society and onetime Peruvian minister of the Interior, referring to Karina Milei (the president’s sister and chief of staff, under strong press fire for alleged corruption) and Axel Kicillof, governor of Buenos Aires and likely Peronist opponent to Milei in the 2027 presidential election.
Should Milei’s party end up with 90 deputies in the lower house and expand its senate membership to 17 to 20 seats (above the present six), it will be able to sustain any of the president’s vetoes of liberal measures enacted by the Peronist opposition.
If this scenario comes true Sunday, Lopez-Dolz added, “the public will have caught the scent of pandemic, hyperinflation, and VIP vaccines and cast its votes in reaction.”
Following the defeat for allies of Milei last month in Buenos Aires, the results spread immediate panic among investors in Argentina, raised doubts about the durability of Milei’s cuts in spending and the size of government, and caused the peso to decline by 10 percent in a matter of hours.
Results in the mid-term elections Sunday are now clearly being watched in Washington D.C. and Beijing. During a meeting with Milei at the White House last week, President Trump made clear the U.S. would not look kindly on a victory of the left in Argentina. As he put it, “If [Milei] loses, we are not going to be generous with Argentina.”
Trump’s words are ominous, to say the least. With the Argentine economy on the verge of recession, the U.S. recently came in with a $20 billion relief package from the Treasury Department facility known as the Economic Stabilization Fund (through which the U.S. bailed out the embattled Mexican peso in the 1990s, with Mexico repaying the loan with interest). Coupled with a heavily front-loaded loan for a similar amount from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), these rescue packages are what is — for now — keeping the Argentine economy from plunging into recession.
A victory by the Argentinian left Sunday would also surely encourage China to step up its already strong presence in the second-largest country in South America. With $14 billion in investment projects and rising exports in Argentina, China is a key trading partner.
“The Milei government is clearly against China’s further expansion into Argentina,” Lopez-Dolz told us, “but since the Argentinian Constitution provides autonomy to the 23 provinces, Chinese expansions into the natural resources industries keep on growing.”
He noted that American investment is needed to change this situation, “but it is hard to fight against China, which is not afraid to lose money for a while if they obtain their strategic goals.”
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