California voters are on track to approve a measure that would redraw the state’s congressional map and deliver a significant political victory for Democrat Gov. Gavin Newsom as he weighs a potential 2028 presidential bid.
Public polling shows Proposition 50, which would authorize a new legislative-drawn map giving Democrats several pickup opportunities in the U.S. House, is likely to pass easily in the Nov. 4 special election.
An Emerson College poll found 57% of likely voters supporting the measure, rising to 60% when undecided voters were added. A CBS News/YouGov survey put the “yes” support at 62%.
Supporters vastly out-fundraised opponents.
The measure would shift control of redistricting in California away, temporarily, from the formerly bipartisan independent body known as the California Citizens Redistricting Commission and give the state legislature authority to adopt a new congressional map for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 election cycles before the commission is set to resume authority after the 2030 census.
The new map is estimated to create up to five new Democratic Party-leaning districts, prime for pickups.
Democrats argue the measure underscores Newsom’s leadership within his party as it grapples with a void ahead of the 2028 presidential race.
Veteran Democratic Party strategist Darry Sragow told The Hill that Newsom “deserves to get credit” for stepping up “on behalf of the party” to increase Democrat House seats.
Newsom, who called the special election earlier this year as a counter to GOP redistricting efforts in states like Texas, has framed the initiative as a defense of democracy and a response to what he calls former President Donald Trump-led efforts to reshape congressional maps.
The official ballot title casts Prop 50 as the “Election Rigging Response Act.”
The campaign’s early return on fundraising is significant. Newsom’s “Yes on 50” campaign raised more than $100 million by mid-October, with tens of millions still in the bank.
Opponents raised only a fraction of that amount and have campaigned on the argument that the move undermines California’s long tradition of independent redistricting.
Critics, including former Republican California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, have labeled the measure a partisan power grab.
Schwarzenegger called the “temporary” redistricting alteration a “total fantasy” and warned that once legislative control is regained, it may not be relinquished.
If approved, Prop 50 would allow Democrats to bolster their House numbers just ahead of the 2026 midterms, potentially setting the stage for Newsom’s presidential ambitions.
However, strategists caution that granting the map is just the first step.
Sragow noted, “There’s a long way to go … before he ever gets to hold a party in the new East Wing of the White House.”
Hannah Milgrom, a spokesperson for Newsom and the “Yes on 50” campaign, said in a statement, “The Governor is 100% focused on passing Prop 50. Every day Donald Trump remains in power is code red for America and our democracy.”
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