An Emerson College poll released Thursday finds the 2025 race for governor of the Garden State locked in a virtual tie between Republican Jack Ciattarelli and Rep. Mikie Sherrill, D-N.J.
The poll of approximately 1,000 likely voters taken Oct. 25-28 places Sherrill at 49% and Ciattarelli at 48% — well inside the ±3 point margin of error.
Sherrill, a four-term U.S. representative from New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District, gained early recognition as a former Navy helicopter pilot and federal prosecutor.
She jumped into the governor’s race seeking to succeed outgoing term-limited Democrat incumbent Phil Murphy. Her campaign has emphasized public safety reform, affordability, and defending the progressive pathway.
Ciattarelli returned to the statewide stage after narrowly losing the 2021 contest. The former state assemblyman has framed his campaign around taxes, cost-of-living pressure, and pushing back against what he casts as Trenton’s unchecked liberal drift.
With the Emerson data showing a razor-thin gap, his challenge to flip the state red is very much alive.
Demographic breakdowns in the Emerson poll expose clear divides.
Voters under 40 lean toward Sherrill — 58% to 24%. Meanwhile, among voters ages 50 and older, Ciattarelli leads 52% to 36%.
Women favor Sherrill by roughly 10 percentage points, while men side with Ciattarelli by about 12.
Top-of-mind issues for Garden State voters raise the stakes: The economy remains the dominant concern. Recent utility rate spikes, high property taxes, and inflationary pressures all weigh heavily.
According to the poll, the outgoing governor’s job approval rating is sagging, which some strategists suggest indicates growing trouble for the Democrat brand.
With undecided voters still in the mix and enthusiasm levels fluctuating, either side can still tip the outcome.
The Emerson poll notes the tie comes at a moment when prior polls showed Sherrill holding a more comfortable lead.
For national politics observers, New Jersey’s governor race is more than just a local contest — it’s potentially a signal of broader trends for the 2026 midterms: Democrats may no longer assume safe comfort, even in blue states.
In the closing stretch, turnout will loom large. The candidate whose base shows up and persuades the swing voters likely will win — and at this moment, Sherrill and Ciattarelli are neck and neck.
The Garden State may well deliver one of the year’s most closely watched gubernatorial outcomes.
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