Federal lawmakers on both sides of the aisle say they’re hopeful that Tuesday’s elections will act as a “catalyst” to end the government shutdown that has paralyzed Washington for more than a month.
“Nothing’s going to happen until after Tuesday. Everybody’s waiting,” a Democrat strategist told The Hill.
“That’ll be the catalyst of like, ‘OK, what’s the next thing?’ And it’ll put people in a different place.”
While some Democrats say that a wide margin of victory in Tuesday’s contests could spur Republicans to negotiate on their healthcare concerns, Republicans are optimistic that results in their favor could push Democrats to vote for a continuing resolution to reopen the government.
Gubernatorial elections in Virginia, which has about 140,000 federal employees, and New Jersey, as well as the New York City mayoral election, are being closely watched by both parties, with the results expected to be an indicator of the national mood ahead of next year’s midterms.
In the Virginia race, Democrat Abigail Spanberger is challenging Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears for governor, as Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli squares off against Democrat Rep. Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey.
Meanwhile, in New York City, Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist, is vying for the city’s top job against former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who is running as an independent after losing the Democratic nomination, and Republican Curtis Sliwa.
“I think if there’s a data point where they do really badly on Tuesday’s elections, that may be another thing that makes them put pressure on [House Speaker] Mike Johnson,” Rep. Ami Bera, D-Calif., told The Hill. “Again, Donald Trump’s probably the only one who can end this shutdown by, you know, giving Speaker Johnson a call and saying, ‘Hey, go negotiate.'”
“And … we know Donald Trump cares about the midterm elections,” he said. “If they do really bad tomorrow, that might be the push that he needs.”
The shutdown fight has hinged on Senate Democrats’ demands that Republicans address the Affordable Care Act subsides, which are set to expire at the end of the year. In vote after vote, Republicans have offered a continuing resolution, saying they want to reopen the government before discussing the subsidies.
But Democrats have rejected any attempt to end the shutdown before negotiations on the subsidies take place.
Republican leaders, dismissive of the importance of Tuesday’s elections, said they hoped the contests would give Senate Democrats the momentum to strike a deal.
At a Monday press conference, House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said he hoped there would be a “change” in the minority party’s shutdown stance later in the week.
“Maybe after tomorrow, they’ll come to their common senses again and do the right thing,” Johnson said. “We certainly pray that is true.”
Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., told reporters he’s optimistic that the government could reopen by the end of the week, pointing to Tuesday’s elections as something that must be dealt with first.
“Seems like that matters,” Thune said. “I don’t know why it should.”
The Senate on Tuesday failed, for the 14th time, to advance a stopgap funding bill and reopen the federal government. Some Democrats joined Republicans in voting for the measure, but the 54-44 vote did not clear the required 60-vote threshold.
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