As of Wednesday, 28 members of the House of Representatives have announced they are either retiring or seeking another office in 2026.
According to several seasoned congressional scholars who spoke to Newsmax, this is only the tip of the iceberg. More members are expected to announce by the beginning of the year that they are leaving.
“Judging from the [list of retirees so far], it looks high,” Henry Olsen, senior fellow at the Center for Ethics and Public Policy, told Newsmax. “Retirements typically rise between October of the off-year and January of the even year. So based on the list, we should expect another 15 to 25 to step aside.”
He added that redistricting in “California, Ohio, and perhaps other states might put the number of [exiting members of Congress] on the higher side.”
As to why the rush to the House exit door, Olsen said, “I suspect the younger members are tired of the grind and the lack of influence members actually wield.”
“I have heard that we are ahead of GOP retirements from this stage of 2017,” during the first Trump administration, said historian David Pietrusza, author of several books on presidential election years.
Pietrusza’s guess is that “many members — of either side, but particularly the GOP side — are disappointed that they are not expected to exercise independent judgment but to vote, speak, and think in lockstep.”
Donald Critchlow, a professor at Arizona State University and the author of three acclaimed books on the Republican Party, pointed out that “the number of Republicans leaving Congress for either retirement or to run for other offices should not necessarily be a sign of a pattern for Republicans alone. Democrats are seeing similar retirements.
“Nonetheless, Republicans leaving Congress raise concerns for the party holding Congress in 2026. Right now, the polls look good, and Republican registrations are up in six battleground states.
“Yet how often have Republicans heard about the coming Red Wave, only to be disappointed in the results?” he said.
John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.
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