Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., holds a narrow lead over New York Democrat Gov. Kathy Hochul in the state’s 2026 gubernatorial race, according to a new poll reported by The Hill.
The Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank, released data Tuesday showing Stefanik with 43% support compared to Hochul’s 42%.
The results fall within the margin of error, making the race statistically tied but giving the Republican congresswoman a slight advantage.
Nine percent of respondents said they support another candidate, while 7% were undecided.
The findings contrast sharply with an August Siena College poll that showed Hochul ahead by 14 points, signaling a significant tightening in the contest.
Both candidates have stepped up their criticism of each other in recent weeks.
Stefanik has attacked Hochul for supporting New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani, a self-described Democratic Socialist.
The same Manhattan Institute poll found Mamdani leading former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who is running as an independent, by a wide margin.
“New Yorkers of all political parties are hungry for new commonsense leadership after decades of Hochul’s failed single-party Democrat rule,” Bernadette Breslin, a spokesperson for Stefanik’s campaign, said in a statement.
“Elise Stefanik and the people of New York can and will win this righteous fight to Save New York,” Breslin added.
Stefanik made similar remarks during a mid-September appearance on Fox.
“Well, Kathy Hochul is the worst governor in America, and it was only a matter of time before she bent the knee for this raging antisemite communist,” Stefanik said at the time.
Hochul recently criticized the state’s Republican leadership following reports that a group chat contained concerning language.
Stefanik posted on Tuesday that, “Under the failed leadership of the Worst Governor in America @KathyHochul, New Yorkers face a historic affordability crisis with the highest taxes in the nation, and the most expensive energy, utility, rent, and grocery bills because of single party Democrat rule.”
She added, “Now Kathy Hochul has put New Yorkers last when she bent the knee to the raging antisemitic Defund the Police tax hiking mayoral candidate to desperately try to shore up her own abysmal polling numbers.”
Hochul on Tuesday was focused on the ongoing federal government shutdown.
She issued a release indicating, “New York will not sit idly by when lives are on the line.
“We’re proud to assist the Office of the Attorney General in joining 24 other states in suing the Trump Administration, demanding the release of emergency funds so families can continue to put food on the table through this government shutdown.”
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