Republican pollster Jim McLaughlin, one of President Donald Trump’s top strategists, told Newsmax on Thursday that Republican Jack Ciattarelli has “a real shot” at flipping the New Jersey governor’s office back to the GOP.
On “The Chris Salcedo Show,” McLaughlin said several new surveys released this week show the New Jersey race dead even, including one from Emerson College that he believes is undercounting Republican strength.
“There’s been about three surveys that have come out over the last day or two that have this race neck and neck,” McLaughlin said. “And one of the surveys — the Emerson survey — it’s actually plus-14 Democrat by registration. It’s probably not going to be that high on Election Day; it’ll probably be about plus-10.”
McLaughlin credited a “Mamdani effect” for helping Ciattarelli, referring to Democratic voters recoiling from the far-left politics of New York City mayoral front-runner Zohran Mamdani after Ciattarelli’s opponent, Rep. Mikie Sherrill, voiced support for him.
“Jack’s run a great campaign. He’s been a great candidate,” McLaughlin said.
“I think a lot of folks are going to be surprised what happens on Election Day. I think Jack has a real shot at winning in New Jersey.”
Turning to Virginia, McLaughlin said the state attorney general’s race could also deliver strong results for Republicans, with incumbent Jason Miyares outperforming GOP gubernatorial candidate Winsome Earle-Sears in polling.
Miyares is facing Democrat Jay Jones, who McLaughlin said has “blown himself up” following backlash over 2022 text messages in which he called for “two bullets to the head” of then-Virginia House Speaker Todd Gilbert.
“But what you have to worry about, hopefully the governor’s race remains close. Jason Miyares is running about double digits better than what Winsome Sears is doing,” McLaughlin said.
McLaughlin noted that in Virginia, the party that wins the governor’s race often sweeps all three statewide contests — governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general — meaning a blowout gubernatorial race could dampen turnout, which would hurt Miyares.
“The governor’s race has tightened up also, but it’ll be interesting to see how far Jason Miyares, the Republican for attorney general of Virginia, runs ahead,” McLaughlin said.
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